[Salon] Fwd: German Foreign Policy: "Goals clearly missed. . . Election campaign instead of peace summit. " (6/17/24.)

https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/9588

Goals clearly missed

Swiss Ukraine conference misses central goals: There were fewer participants than planned, the heavyweights of the Global South did not sign the final declaration. Ukraine does not get into a "position of strength".

17 JUNE 2024

"From a position of strength"

The Swiss Ukraine conference follows a series of preparatory meetings that began at the end of June last year - with meetings first in Copenhagen [1], then in Saudi Jiddah [2], in Maltese Valletta [3] and in Davos in January. Started on Western initiative, the events were to accompany the military offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces at the time. The offensive was originally associated with the plan to inflict at least some sensitive blows on Russia, in this way to weaken the Russian position and to let Kiev enter from a position of strength in negotiations with Moscow for an early end to the war. 4] These final negotiations were to be prepared with the meetings in Copenhagen, Jiddah, Valletta and Davos. The plan did not work because the Kiev offensive failed. Meanwhile, Russia has come militarily on the offensive. A defeat of Ukraine is emerging, which is why Western weapons have been released for attacks on Russian territory and a war deployment of Western troops is being discussed. 5] Kiev is currently further away from the desired military position of strength than ever.

Diplomacy as a substitute

That's why the plan was created to bring Ukraine, if not militarily, at least politically into a position of strength. The Swiss conference, touted as an alleged peace summit, offered itself for this purpose. The basis of the meeting should be the so-called peace formula of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a list of demands that provides, among other things, for Russia's withdrawal from all territories occupied since 2022 and from Crimea, as well as the payment of reparations and the extradition of actual or alleged Russian war criminals. Such demands would only have a chance of success after an unconditional surrender of Russia. The goal was first to put as many states as possible - especially those from the Global South - behind Zelensky's "peace formula" at the conference and thus to diplomatically isolate Moscow or to put it in a position of weakness. However, the concept did not work. Influential states of the Global South such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa either cancelled their participation at an early stage or announced that specialist staff, but not - as actually desired by the West - their state or to send heads of government.

"Peace needs both parties"

In general, the number of commitments remained extremely low for a long time - until the organizers began to significantly reduce the goal of the conference. So it was no longer said that the event was based on the entire Selenskyj "peace formula". Shortly before the start of the conference, Swiss government circles leaked that they only wanted to focus on some selected elements of the "peace formula", such as provisions on securing agricultural deliveries via the Black Sea and nuclear security, an agreement on a prisoner exchange. 6] All these are elements that are also included in the twelve-point plan presented by China in February 2023 "for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis"; their need is undisputed. In addition, it was now repeatedly said that in the future they wanted to refrain from the practice of not inviting Russia to events labeled as a "peace summit". "For peace, both parties need at the table," admitted Swiss Federal President Viola Amherd on the 7th. June in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. She continued: "Russia could then also be part of a possible follow-up conference." 7]

Election campaign instead of peace summit

Only the departure from Zelensky's "peace formula" and the willingness to invite Russia to peace negotiations in the future has increased the number of registrations for the Swiss Ukraine conference. At the weekend, it was said that 92 of 160 invited states were present at the meeting, 57 with their heads of state and government. Of course, these were mainly heads of state and government from Europe and from countries that - such as Japan or Singapore - are closely linked to the West. The plan to lure the presidents of Brazil, India and Turkey to Italy with an invitation to the G7 summit in order to facilitate an immediately following detour to Switzerland did not work: All three traveled to the G7 summit, but flew home directly from Puglia. Not even the president of the Philippines, which is now highly dependent on the USA, Ferdinand Marcos, took part in the Ukraine conference, although Zelensky had only recently gone specifically to Manila to persuade him to travel. 8] Because the decisive states of the Global South were represented at most with foreign ministers or even only with ministerial officials, US President Joe Biden ultimately preferred an election campaign meeting in California to the trip to Switzerland.

Compromises required

In terms of content, the Western states also had to endure severe setbacks at the so-called peace summit. For example, some Western politicians still appeared as hardliners. Lithuania's President Gitanas Nausėda, for example, stated that Russia's armed forces, even if this currently seems "unrealistic", must withdraw from all originally Ukrainian territories; Moscow must pay reparations. 9] Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, on the other hand - Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman did not participate - stated that serious peace talks made "difficult compromises" inevitable. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was also criticized, who stressed that the Swiss conference could have been "more result-oriented" if Russia had been invited. 10]

Heavyweights refuse

Although the final declaration focused on the three elements mentioned - securing agricultural deliveries via the Black Sea, nuclear security, prisoner exchange - it only took into account Ukrainian, but not Russian interests and can therefore hardly serve as a cornerstone for further negotiations. It was also only signed by 78 states, including 42 from Europe. Only eleven signatures came from African states, for example. Especially the heavyweights from the Global South refused to sign the declaration, such as India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates; China had not even participated in the conference. The goal of bringing Ukraine into a position of strength was thus clearly missed. On the contrary: It has once again been shown that the West is no longer able to mobilize global majorities for its projects, even with extreme commitment.

[1] P. The transition to diplomacy (II).

[2] S. about it From the battlefield to the negotiating table.

[3], [4] S. The third round of negotiations.

[5] S. about the expansion of the battlefield and "entry into the Third World War".

[6] More than 90 states: Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland begins. handelsblatt.com 15.06.2024.

[7] "For peace, both parties need at the table." Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 07.06.2024.

[8] Zelenskyy says Philippines to participate in peace conference. voanews.com 03.06.2024.

[9], [10] Jamey Keaten, Aamer Madhani: World leaders meet in Switzerland to discuss a Ukraine peace roadmap. Russia is notably absent. apnews.com 15.06.2024.